Nate Silver has spoken on the World Cup, and surprise, surprise, he’s picking Brazil.
ESPN’s resident prognosticator, who runs the website fivethirtyeight.com, posted his predictions Monday generated by the Soccer Power Index, an algorithm he developed in conjunction with ESPN in 2010. It puts the host country’s chances of winning the tournament at an overwhelming 45 percent, with the next highest nation being Argentina at nearly 13 percent.
Germany (10.9 percent) and Spain (7.6) come in at Nos. 3 and 4, respectively.
The United States, meanwhile, are in the middle of the pack at 0.4 percent.
If that sounds bleak, consider that four countries, Iran, Honduras, Algeria, and Australia, are given a 0 percent chance of winning the World Cup.