If the United States somehow gets some bad results at Sunday's preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, you can blame long-time U.S. international goalkeeper Kasey Keller and former Atlanta Chiefs star Kaizer Motaung.
They will be pulling balls from several pots for the CONCACAF first and second stages of the draw.
Seriously, the USA, one of 13 teams that will receive a first-round bye, isn't expected to get a difficult opponent in the second stage.
Life will get more difficult in the third stage, when the competition will be down to 12 teams -- three groups of four teams apiece.
The U.S. was seeded second behind archrival Mexico.
The top 12 teams in the confederation will receive first-round byes -- plus St. Vincent and the Grenadines -- in the qualifying competition, meaning the USA won't begin their quest for a sixth consecutive World Cup berth until June.
CONCACAF qualifying is scheduled to begin Feb. 6.
Draw seedings
The seedings were determined by the May FIFA rankings.
The entire seeding:
- Mexico
- USA
- Costa Rica
- Honduras
- Panama
- Trinidad and Tobago
- Jamaica
- Cuba
- Haiti
- Guatemala
- Canada
- Guyana
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
- Barbados
- Suriname
- Bermuda
- Antigua and Barbuda
- St. Kitts and Nevis
- Dominican Republic
- El Salvador
- Bahamas
- Nicaragua
- Grenada
- St. Lucia
- Turks and Caicos Islands
- Netherlands Antilles
- British Virgin Islands
- Dominica
- Cayman Islands
- Puerto Rico
- Anguilla
- Belize
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Montserrat
- Aruba
CONCACAF draw format
For the first three stages, 35 teams are divided into six pots that are based on the FIFA rankings of May 2007. The strongest teams are in Pot A, the next batch of strongest teams to Pot B until they get to Pot F.
Pots A and B will have three teams apiece. Pot C has six teams, Pot D has one team and Pots E and F have 11 teams apiece.
Pot W, a special pot, will contain 11 winner balls for Stage two.
For Stage One, teams from Pots E and F will be drawn into 11 home-and away series.
For Stage Two, the 11 Stage One winners -- that's Pot W and the team from Pot D will be drawn against teams from Pots A, B and C into 12 home-and-away series.
For Stage Three, which also is known as the CONCACAF semifinals, will be automatically determined by the winners of the Stage Two groups.
Playing dates
Stage One -- Feb. 6 and March 26.
Stage Two -- Most likely from June 7-29, which coincide with Euro 2008.
Stage Three (CONCACAF semifinals in 2008) -- Aug. 20 (one game), Sept. 6-10 (two games), Oct. 11-15 (two games) and Nov. 19 (one).
Stage Four (CONCACAF final round in 2009 ) -- Feb. 11 (one game), March 28-April 1 (two games), June 6-10 (two games), Aug. 19 (one game), Sept. 5-9 (two games) and Oct. 10-14 (two games).
The road to South Africa
Qualifying will follow a familiar route as it did for Germany 2006.
First stage: The 12 best teams (through the May 2007 FIFA rankings) and St. Vincent and the Grenadines receive a bye. The remaining 22 teams will be drawn into 11 pairings, where they will play home and away. The winners will advance to the second round.
Second stage: Those winners will going the top 12 sides and St. Vincent. They, in turn, will be paired into 12 playoffs that will be played home-and-away. The survivors will advance to the next round.
Third stage: The 12 teams will be drawn into three groups of four teams. They will play in a league system, each facing the other home and away. The top two countries will reach the next stage.
Fourth stage: The final six will play in a round-robin competition, home and away. The top three sides will advance to the World Cup. The fourth-place team will play South America's fifth-placed team in a playoff.
The rest of the draw
Sunday's draw will be important as to seeing who plays whom for 31 slots in the tournament (South Africa as host received an automatic berth). The where and when will be determined later.
By the time the final draw is held in as a yet-to-be determined city in South Africa in December 2008, 200 countries are expected to play a record 861 games to determine the fortunate sides. In contrast, 847 matches were needed to determine the finalists.
Here's a quick look at the other confederations:
Africa (53 countries, 51 participants, five berths plus host South America)
Withdrawals: Sao Tome and Principe and Central African Republic
First stage: The competition actually began in October and November, when a preliminary round was held for the six lowest-ranked teams (as of July's FIFA world rankings). Madagascar, Sierra Leone and Djibouti advanced to the second stage to play along with 45 other teams.
Second stage: The remaining 48 countries will be drawn into 12 groups of four teams each. They will play in a league system on a home-and-away basis. The group winners and the eight best second-place sides will reach the third stage.
Third stage: The 20 teams will be draw into five groups of four teams apiece. They will play on a home-and-away basis with the five group winners qualifying for the World Cup.
Asia (46 countries, 41 participants, 4.5 berths)
Withdrawals: Bhutan, Guam.
Did not enter: Brunei, Laos, Philippines
First stage: The five top-seeded countries -- Australia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Japan and Iran -- and Kuwait and Indonesia received byes to the third stage. The other 36 teams will be paired into 17 home-and-away playoffs with the 11 highest ranked winners earning byes to the third stage and the other eight winners reaching the second stage.
Second stage: The eight teams will be involved into four home-and-away playoffs
Third stage: The 11 survivors from the first stage and the four second-stage winners will be joined by the five top-ranked sides who received a bye. This stage is played as a league system on a home-and-away basis. There are five groups of four teams apiece. The two top teams from each group move onto the next stage.
Fourth stage: The 10 remaining countries will be drawn into two groups that play via a league system on a home-and-away basis. The two group winners and two runners-up will qualify for the World Cup.
Fifth stage: Both third-place teams from the previous stage will meet for a two-game playoff. The winner will advance to meet the Oceania zone winner.
Europe (53 countries, 53 participants, 13 berths)
First stage: This competition will begin in August and will play as a traditional league system on a home-and-away basis. There will be nine groups -- eight groups of six teams and one group of five teams. The nine group winners will reach the World Cup.
Second stage: The eight best second-place sides will be drawn against each other for four playoff matches that will be played on a home-and-away basis. The four winners will qualify for the Cup.
Oceania (11 countries, 10 participants, 0.5 berths)
Withdrawals: Papua New Guinea
First stage: New Zealand received a bye. Nine countries participated in the South Pacific Games in late August and early September, which was the World Cup qualifying tournament. The top three nations -- New Caledonia, Fiji and Vanuatu -- reached the next stage.
Second stage: Those three teams will meet New Zealand in a league system home and away from October, 2007 on. The top two teams advance to the next stage.
Third stage: The finalists will meet each other in a two-game series, home and away. The winner will play third-place finisher from Asia.
South America (10 countries, 10 participants, 4.5 berths)
First and only stage: This competition, which kicked off in October, is played as a league system home and away. The top four nations will qualify for the Cup. The fourth-place side will take on No. 4 from CONCACAF.
Michael Lewis covers soccer for the New York Daily News and is editor of BigAppleSoccer.com. He can be reached at SoccerWriter516@aol.com. Views and opinions expressed in this column are the author's, and not necessarily those of Major League Soccer or MLSnet.com.
