you take your best shot and hope for the best.
It's certainly more of a dice roll than drafts in other U.S. pro sports.
Consider the history of past MLS No. 1 picks, many of whom were advertised as beefy SUVs but turned out to be subcompacts. Conversely, look at the late first-round picks or the second-round selections that evolved into national team regulars.
New London resident Clint Dempsey? He was the eighth pick in 2004, chosen behind some decent players, but none of whom that currently have EPL clubs chasing them with big wads of cash (including Freddy Adu).
Speaking of Adu, he was the No. 1 pick in 2004. Not bad so far, all things considered. Alecko Eskandarian was the top selection in 2003. The final verdict will take some time with that one.
Chris Gbandi, the top pick of 2002, has rounded into a nice defender, but hardly a dominant one. Chris Carrieri, the top pick of 2001? He might as well be part of the federal witness protection program. Ditto Steve Shak and Jason Moore, the top picks from 2000 and 1999.
Shak finished his league career with exactly one more MLS goal than Sir Bobby Charlton. Of course, Charlton was 59 when MLS kicked out the first Mitre in 1996.
Part of the problem is the weight assigned to the combine (held last week in Florida). Scouting budgets, a small percentage of what they are in other U.S. sports, permit fewer opportunities to evaluate talent in familiar environments. So much, then, comes down to three days at a combine when players may react poorly to travel, illness, unfamiliar teammates, vague tactical instruction or playing a new position.
Or the evaluations may fall the other way, with some grading out better than they really are simply because they adapt faster than others.
There are 26 MLS players currently in Bob Bradley's U.S. national team camp. Only one (Brian Mullan) is from the first round of the 2001 draft. But three in camp (Bryan Namoff, Eddie Johnson and Eddie Robinson) are from the second round of that draft.
There have been 56 opening-round picks since then; just six are in Bradley's camp.
NEW HOUSE IN SLC: The new stadium deal in Salt Lake City has been on-and-off more than Brangelina, Bennifer and Tomkat combined.
The (almost) latest: Utah house speaker Greg Curtis pronounced the stadium deal "dead" in a Jan. 8 Salt Lake City Tribune article. Declaring the deal in nearby Sandy utterly kaput, he filed a legislative bill that would steer money slated for a soccer stadium to a light rail bound for the SLC airport.
The (really, really) latest: It's far from dead, according to RSL officials.
Owner Dave Checketts responded to the Jan. 8 story in his usual fashion: remaining steadfastly optimistic that the deal is in good shape. The target remains a July 2008 opening, although even Checketts now seems less sure that his group can make it all happen within the next 18 months.
"Dave is a very optimistic person, and he really believes in what this thing means for the [Salt Lake City] area," Checketts spokesman Eric Gelfand said Wednesday. "We are very confident we are going to get this done in very short order."
WILL HE OR WON'T HE?: No matter what you hear right now, only one person truly knows whether the prettiest right-sided midfielder in the history of the world will land on MLS shores. And that sole soul-in-the-know would be David Beckham himself.
Wednesday, MLS officials fielded a fresh round of queries from worldwide and domestic media after Real Madrid officials made a passing mention of MLS in the ongoing Beckham sweepstakes.
This much we do know: there is no way to overestimate Beckham's potential publicity value. To wit: MLS spokesman Dan Courtemanche says he's been alerted that, if Beckham were to sign here, SNTV would file a daily report, available worldwide, from wherever the ballyhooed Englander lands.
Think of SNTV (Sports News Television) as a sort of global, electronic version of the Associated Press.
And after the slimmest sliver of new "news" wafted out of Madrid, SportsCenter officials called Courtemanche to ask if he could come on the air to discus the Beckham brouhaha. (Courtemanche deferred to Eric Wynalda.)
So, will Becks soon be inflating the MLS wow-wow factor or won't he?
"We hope we can sign him," Courtemanche said. "But there are about four others hoping the same thing right now, including Real Madrid."
REALITY THIS: Crowded as the reality TV world already is, Chivas USA is diving into the pool. Details are sketchy but the show appears to be a weekly series of trails and eliminations, eventually culminating in a contract being offered to a lone survivor.
Here's the kicker: The winner might actually get on the field, judging by the sudden defections and attrition at Chivas USA.
Not only do the Goats not have a coach, they are also now without Francisco "Paco" Palencia, Juan Pablo Garcia, Johnnie Garcia and Jesus Morales. The foursome, who left quietly in recent days, accounted for 54 starts last year (most by Juan Pablo Garcia and Palencia).
Juan Pablo Garcia, the team's second leading scorer with eight goals, has signed with Mexico's Tigres. Palencia has joined UNAM Pumas. Morales and Johnnie Garcia have been released.
That certainly frees up some cash for Chivas USA. Now, the L.A. outfit just needs a coach, someone to start spending some of that dough.
DALLAS DOINGS: FC Dallas has two of Friday's first 14 picks. While perhaps four central defenders, led by Notre Dame's Greg Dalby, are potential first-round selections, don't look for Dallas to go that route.
The team remains bloated at the position, with Greg Vanney, Drew Moor, Clarence Goodson and Alex Yi all having started in central defense last year. Plus, new manager Steve Morrow would prefer to play ex-Dynamo Adrian Serioux there (as opposed to central midfield, where he sometimes played in 2006 for Dominic Kinnear.)
Morrow believes Yi could make a good right back, which could help alleviate a bit of the logjam. Still, if you're looking for a point where some of the draft-day swapping might begin, that's as good a place to start as any. Morrow knows he doesn't need three experienced center backs sitting on the bench.
BRIAN COMING BACK?: If you missed it Wednesday, the Columbus Dispatch reported that the Crew is pressing hard to bring back Brian McBride for a second bite off the MLS apple.
The newspaper reported that Columbus manager Sigi Schmid met with McBride in December and has exchanged phone calls and e-mails since, and that the recently retired U.S. international is the Crew's first Designated Player choice.
McBride, 34, is under contract with Fulham until May.
McBride scored 62 times in 161 games for the Crew before signing with the EPL club after the 2003 season here. That's a strike rate of one goal every 2.6 MLS matches.
While the popular former Crew captain could certainly help prop up attendance in Columbus, his value as a designated player is ripe for debate. His strike rate is well below some of the other top MLS snipers, such as Carlos Ruiz (one goal every 1.6 matches), Taylor Twellman (1.7) and Ante Razov (2.2).
THE BUILDING BOOM: Sometimes a heaping helping of historical perspective is a bridge to clarity.
Major League Soccer certainly isn't a finished product; plenty of development lies ahead. But look at where MLS stood (quite precariously) just five short years ago, and consider the colossal sea change.
Miami and Tampa Bay ceased operations in January of 2002, gut-punching a league that was left wobbly with just 10 teams and - imagine this now - only three owners. Phil Anschutz's group controlled six teams. The Hunts presided over three and the Krafts retained New England.
At that time - again, this was merely five years ago - ground had yet to be broken on The Home Depot Center. Crew Stadium was Major League Soccer's only, lonely soccer-first ground.
Five years hence, 10 ownership groups rule the league, led still by three Anschutz entries. And seven teams will trap and pass in soccer specific stadiums in 2007, marking the first time in league history that more than half the clubs aren't anchored into borrowed grounds.
Steve Davis is a freelance writer who has covered Major League Soccer since its inception. Steve can be reached at BigTexSoccer@yahoo.com. The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author's, and not necessarily those of Major League Soccer or MLSnet.com.
