MLS Fantasy: How to avoid taking a direct hit to your team's value
MLS Fantasy Soccer: Manager is, in some ways, similar to the New York Stock Exchange: Some prices go up while others go down. Knowing which players are going to rise in value is only half the battle. If you want to make good on all of your investments, you’ll need to know when it's the right time to get out, too.
On Wednesday, I shared with you the secret formula to building your bankroll. Today you get to learn the other half of the story: how to avoid losses.
Price drops are in some degree similar to price rises, but instead of factoring in the percentage of active managers in the game, you need to know the percentage of active managers who actually own the player. If a player is owned by a larger portion of the league, in theory it will take more drops for that player's price to fall.
The two categories that affect price increases in FS:M are the same for price drops: Transfers In/Out per round and Total Transfers In/Out for the entire season. Those figures can be accessed by hitting the "Transfers" tab and locating the "Player Filter" on the top right. The "Sorted By" dropdown menu allows users to get all the transfer totals.
[Note that player values update at 3 am ET every day – up or down]
Let's use the Houston Dynamo’s Brad Davis as an example of how a player's value can drop. On Thursday morning, Davis’ price was adjusted based on the number of Net Transfers Out he had accumulated since the start of the season. Because the net Transfers Out for Davis (number of Fantasy managers who dropped Davis less the number of Fantasy managers who added Davis) represented an 11 percent decrease in overall active managers who owned him, his game value decreased by $0.1m to $8.9m.
The key number you need to know here is 11 percent. Davis was owned by 26.5 percent of the active managers at the time of his price adjustment this morning, so the math tells us that it will take another 500 Net Transfers Out (give or take a few) for him to see a another price drop of $0.1m.
There are however a few variables that need to be taken into consideration for players with injuries or suspensions: The 11 percent is multiplied by 1.5 for doubtful and 2.8 for injured/suspended. Plus when they come back, transfers are ignored for a few days so that they can get a stable base again. This to stop them from falling too much or rising too quickly (i.e. Dwayne De Rosario).
And finally, as is the case with price increases, the system does not count fantasy managers adding players via "Wildcard" among the net Transfers In/Out. Also, if a player's net Transfers Out crosses that 11 percent threshold on any given day, his value will only drop $0.1m at the time of the following update – even if those net Transfers Out represent more than 22 percent of his total Fantasy managers in the game.
If you missed the first part of this series, click the link below and check it out. Think you have what it takes to cash in?
This information is exclusive to MLSsoccer.com. For more insider information on trades, injuries, new signings and suspensions follow @MLSFantasy.